Perhaps the number that is most critical in influencing people’s decisions to become vaccinated – so the truth behind this number, if we are valued, should be triple-checked and completely qualified as accurate. And the science behind how this number is being generated, transparent. Here is a great video from the Canadian COVID Care Alliance that I would encourage you to watch! Please watch it, read the below, do your own research, and come to your own conclusion!
General Risk / Benefit Ratio
It is my understanding that Pfizer’s own study showed 4 individuals as having perished from cardiac arrest in the group that got the vaccine, vs one in the placebo group (page 12). In what I read, they reported 15 deaths for those having been vaccinated vs 14 deaths for those who had not (also page 12).
In a paper published in “Science, Public Health Policy, and the Law” (Volume 3:87-99) on August, 2021 asking the question “The Safety of COVID-19 Vaccinations — Should We
Rethink the Policy?“, researchers noticed that COVID-19 vaccines have had “expedited reviews without sufficient safety data”. The research team had wanted to answer an extremely basic and fundamental question – What Is The Risk To Benefit Ratio. It is my opinion that this should be the question that everyone is asking – rather than just doing what we are being told to.
So the research team calculated the Number Needed to Vaccinate (NNTV) that will prevent one death using numbers based on a large Israeli field study. They then accessed the Adverse Drug Reactions database of the Dutch National Register (Lareb) and extracted the number of cases reporting both severe and fatal side-effects. Their results: the NNTV is between 200 and 700 to prevent just one case of COVID-19 for the Pfizer mRNA vaccine. The NNTV to prevent just one death is between 9,000 and 100,000 (a 95% confidence interval), with 16,000 as a point estimate.
They then worked to estimate and compare the number of deaths prevented by vaccination with the number of deaths caused by vaccination. The team observed strong variability in the number of Individual Case Safety Reports (ICSRs) per 100,000 vaccine doses across all EU member states. The estimate for the number of ICSRs per 100,000 vaccinations was approximately 700. Among those, there were 16 serious ICSRs, and the number of ICSRs reporting fatal side-effects was at 4/100,000 vaccinations. Thus for 6 deaths prevented by vaccination, there were approximately 4 deaths reported to Dutch Lareb that occurred after vaccination. This yields a potential risk/benefit ratio of 2:3. The conclusion was that although causality between ICSRs and vaccination has not been established, the data indicates a lack of clear benefit, which should cause governments to rethink their vaccination policy.
The Pfizer 6 month trial showed the drug can save one life for every 22,000 people vaccinated. However, it also appeared from the trial that the drug killed more people than it saved – there were 20 deaths in the treatment group vs. 14 in placebo after unblinding.
In an interview on Fox News, Bret Baier interviews Rochelle Walensky and clarifies that between the ages of 15 to 24, there is a 0.001% chance of death from COVID-19. She returns that you are 17 times more apt to be hospitalized and 25 times more apt to die from COVID-19 if you are not vaccinated. It is my understanding, therefore, that we are placing 99.999% percent of that age group at risk for side-effects by subjecting them to an unproven medical experiment that helps to ensure that the 0.001% that could become affected have less chance of going to hospital and dying. I do not believe this is good risk / reward ratio.
Benefit / Risk Analysis of vaccinating children aged 5 to 11
According to this study, at best the Pfizer mRNA might be 80% effective against hospitalizations and death – with this number coming directly from the FDA modeling (p. 32). The principle in the study stated that he was “bending over backwards to give Pfizer the benefit of considerable doubt because again, the Pfizer clinical trial showed NO reduction in hospitalizations or death in this age group”. He calculated that vaccinating all 28,384,878 children ages 5 to 11 in the USA with two doses of Pfizer would save at most, 45 lives. His equation: 0.8 effectiveness x 57 fatalities that otherwise would have occurred during that time period = 45. The NNTV required to prevent a single fatality in this age group is 630,775 (28,384,878 / 45). But as it is a two dose regimen if one wants to calculate the NNTV per injection the number doubles to 1,261,550. The researcher describes this as “literally the worst NNTV in the history of vaccination”.
Numbers / Facts (at time of writing):
- 31,761,099 people (so just about 10% more people than in the 5 to 11 age bracket) ages 12 to 24 have gotten at least one coronavirus shot.
- The COVID-19 vaccine program has only existed for 10 months and younger people have only had access more recently (children 12 to 15 have had access for five months).
- During that time, there were 128 reports of fatal side effects following mRNA injections in people 12 to 24. Please consider that there is a reporting lag so the actual number of reports that have been filed will be higher.
- Kirsch, Rose, and Crawford (2021) estimate that VAERS undercounts fatal reactions by a factor of 41 which would put the total fatal side effects in this age range at 5,248. (Kirsch et al. represents a conservative estimate because others have put the underreporting factor at 100.)
- With potentially deadly side effects including myo- and pericarditis disproportionately impacting youth it is reasonable to think that over time the rate of fatal side effects from mRNA shots in children ages 5 to 11 might be similar to those in ages 12 to 24.
Antibody Depenent Enhancement (ADE)
Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE) is when antibodies that are supposed to prevent cell entry instead work to increase the ability of a virus to enter cells – this is a consideration when developing COVID vaccines. Two supporting articles: article 1, and article 2. Unfortunately in testing most animal models and in-vitro models seldom predict ADE, thus more studies are required to help define the clinical correlation with protective immunity. We need to carefully analyze the safety of mRNA vaccine in humans because ADE of diseases cannot be predicted after administrating antibodies and vaccination.
Most research on this references bacteria and parasites. Researches of mRNA vaccines against bacteria and parasites are limited, with no vaccine relating to bacteria and parasites having been approved so far. We also need to consider that bacteria are one hundred times larger than viruses – hence there are differences in the structural complexity and immunology between them. Although mRNA vaccines in tumors and viruses have multiple advantages, they are still in the initial stage.
Brian Lichty, PhD, an associate professor in pathology and molecular medicine at McMaster University in Toronto, Canada, spoke with Medpage Today who published;
“To date, there’s really no evidence of ADE with the COVID-19 vaccines. It’s all theoretical,” he said. “I think all the evidence so far is that ADE is not turning out to be a problem with any existing vaccines or viral variants.” One reason could be that SARS-CoV-2 just may not affect macrophages in a way that can produce ADE, although scientists are still working out the details. ADE has been reported after natural infection with other viruses, such as HIV, Ebola, and coxsackievirus, as well as other coronaviruses like SARS and MERS. Throughout the pandemic, scientists have been looking for ADE associated with SARS-CoV-2, but so far they haven’t found any cases of it, noted Lichty. “This coronavirus may already be sufficiently adapted to humans, so that if it does get into macrophages via a non-neutralizing antibody interaction, it may not allow the macrophage to produce enough cytokine to cause an obvious pathology,” he said.
For your consideration, I offer a research article which found that antibody dependent enhancement has been witnessed in animal trials for failed vaccines targeting SARS. I also wish to point out that after being injected with the mRNA technology all animals died upon re-infection with wild-type virus.
Read the next section, “Let’s Follow The Science“.